Post by kelvin on Oct 2, 2009 12:21:46 GMT -5
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/the-harshest-of-harsh-realities/article1309523/
The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that another 263,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8 per cent. This was far worse than Wall Street's consensus estimate of 180,000 jobs.
Here's what the experts had to say:
Market analyst Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman letter
‘It will be years before those losses are made back'
“We note, for the record, that ‘non-farms' have now fallen for 20 consecutive months, the longest decline we can ever recall,” Virginia-based market analyst Dennis Gartman wrote in his widely-followed Gartman Letter.
“The U.S. has cumulatively lost very nearly 7 million jobs during this long decline. It shall be years before those losses are made back, and it may be a decade or more. That is the harshest of harsh realities.”
Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri
Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri
Canadian exports will remain ‘under pressure’ as Americans curb spending
“Our exports will remain under pressure for quite some time,” Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri said in an interview. “American consumers will be spending at a very subdued clip for the rest of this year and not buying a whole lot of Canadian exports.”
Mr. Gautieri noted that exports to the United States account for about 28 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product, “so it is really tough to grow our economy quickly if the U.S. economy is just not spending.”
Still, the Canadian labour market appears to be in better shape than the U.S. labour market – the Canadian economy created an unexpected 27,000 jobs in August, led by part-time work.
“Hopefully, we’ll see another good set of Canadian numbers next Friday.”
Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt
Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt
'A new record high' for duration of unemployment'
“The key to us in this report is that hours worked have shown no stabilization effect despite a generally lower trend pace of job losses in recent months. Hours worked dropped at a faster pace than bodies last month, and that’s more important by way of cash flow indicators,” Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt said in a note to clients.
“Almost 90 per cent of the job cuts were in full-time employment,” Mr. Holt noted, adding that the losses were widespread, with both the private and public sectors shedding jobs.
“The average duration of unemployment shot up to 26.2 weeks in September, a new record high.”
Capital Economics economist Paul Dales
Capital Economics economist Paul Dales
‘The next big concern will be falling wage growth’
“Earnings growth is likely to continue to fall and may even turn negative, further undermining consumption and reinforcing deflationary pressures,” economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics Ltd. said in a research note.
“The modest 0.1 per cent month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings pushed the annual growth rate down from 2.6 per cent to a 4.5-year low of 2.5 per cent,” Mr. Dales said.
Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities
Employment picture ‘much uglier than thought,’ but U.S. recession is over
“The bottom line of this report is simply that the U.S. labour market remains in far worse shape than thought. However, notwithstanding the abysmal performance of the labour market in September, we continue to believe that the U.S. economic recession is behind us, even though its impact is continuing to be felt in a very big way in the labour market,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Millan Mulraine said.
“If anything, we think this report will dampen expectations for the near-term recovery, which we believe will be tepid at best.”
The U.S. Labor Department reported Friday that another 263,000 Americans lost their jobs in September, pushing the unemployment rate to 9.8 per cent. This was far worse than Wall Street's consensus estimate of 180,000 jobs.
Here's what the experts had to say:
Market analyst Dennis Gartman, author of the Gartman letter
‘It will be years before those losses are made back'
“We note, for the record, that ‘non-farms' have now fallen for 20 consecutive months, the longest decline we can ever recall,” Virginia-based market analyst Dennis Gartman wrote in his widely-followed Gartman Letter.
“The U.S. has cumulatively lost very nearly 7 million jobs during this long decline. It shall be years before those losses are made back, and it may be a decade or more. That is the harshest of harsh realities.”
Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri
Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri
Canadian exports will remain ‘under pressure’ as Americans curb spending
“Our exports will remain under pressure for quite some time,” Bank of Montreal economist Sal Gautieri said in an interview. “American consumers will be spending at a very subdued clip for the rest of this year and not buying a whole lot of Canadian exports.”
Mr. Gautieri noted that exports to the United States account for about 28 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product, “so it is really tough to grow our economy quickly if the U.S. economy is just not spending.”
Still, the Canadian labour market appears to be in better shape than the U.S. labour market – the Canadian economy created an unexpected 27,000 jobs in August, led by part-time work.
“Hopefully, we’ll see another good set of Canadian numbers next Friday.”
Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt
Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt
'A new record high' for duration of unemployment'
“The key to us in this report is that hours worked have shown no stabilization effect despite a generally lower trend pace of job losses in recent months. Hours worked dropped at a faster pace than bodies last month, and that’s more important by way of cash flow indicators,” Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt said in a note to clients.
“Almost 90 per cent of the job cuts were in full-time employment,” Mr. Holt noted, adding that the losses were widespread, with both the private and public sectors shedding jobs.
“The average duration of unemployment shot up to 26.2 weeks in September, a new record high.”
Capital Economics economist Paul Dales
Capital Economics economist Paul Dales
‘The next big concern will be falling wage growth’
“Earnings growth is likely to continue to fall and may even turn negative, further undermining consumption and reinforcing deflationary pressures,” economist Paul Dales of Capital Economics Ltd. said in a research note.
“The modest 0.1 per cent month-over-month increase in average hourly earnings pushed the annual growth rate down from 2.6 per cent to a 4.5-year low of 2.5 per cent,” Mr. Dales said.
Millan Mulraine, economics strategist with TD Securities
Employment picture ‘much uglier than thought,’ but U.S. recession is over
“The bottom line of this report is simply that the U.S. labour market remains in far worse shape than thought. However, notwithstanding the abysmal performance of the labour market in September, we continue to believe that the U.S. economic recession is behind us, even though its impact is continuing to be felt in a very big way in the labour market,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economist Millan Mulraine said.
“If anything, we think this report will dampen expectations for the near-term recovery, which we believe will be tepid at best.”