Post by kelvin on Oct 13, 2008 9:23:09 GMT -5
www.nationalpost.com/news/canada/election-2008/story.html?id=873860
Tory minority seems likely, latest poll shows
Norma Greenaway, Canwest News Service Published: Friday, October 10, 2008
OTTAWA -- The federal election campaign is coming down to a possible photo finish as the ruling Conservative party's lead over the Liberals is narrowing in the face of voter volatility spurred by the U.S.-born global financial crisis, according to the results of a sweeping new Ipsos-Reid poll.
The poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, said Conservative support was at 34 per cent, compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 18 per cent for the New Democratic Party, nine per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and eight per cent for the Greens.
Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, said the political landscape is so unsettled going into the final weekend of the campaign that the only thing he will confidently predict is that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will not win a majority of the 308 seats in the Commons in Tuesday's election.
Instead, Mr. Bricker predicts a minority Conservative government, but not, he says, with total confidence, given the unpredictable reaction among voters to the "economic tsunami."
Mr. Bricker also said that based on what happened in the last two elections -- when significant numbers of NDP supporters voted Liberal to block Harper -- he does not rule out significant shifts before Canadians vote. He suggested the NDP vote might hold firmer this time, however, because there is not the fear of a Harper majority hanging over their decision.
The poll involved telephone interviews Tuesday through Thursday with 2,000 adults, double the size of the firm's normal surveys for Canwest and Global, as well as a major on-line surveys designed to collect voter attitudes on everything from whether the country is headed into recession to their take on the political parties' plans for dealing with the global economic crisis.
Mr. Bricker said the findings point to a sense of "impending doom" among Canadians, and that Mr. Harper has not persuaded or reassured a significant portion of the population that he has a plan to deal with the impact of the global economic crisis.
The poll, taken before the government announced a $25-billion plan designed to ease credit in the banking system, said only 30 per cent of those surveyed said they thought the Tories have a plan. Stephane Dion's Liberals did not fare much better, with only 28 per cent saying they think the Grits have a plan. The poll also said the two leaders' favourable numbers were buried by their negative ratings.
Forty-four per cent of those surveyed also said their impression of Mr. Harper had worsened over the last couple of days, compared with 12 per cent who said their impression improved. For Mr. Dion, 30 per cent said their impression had worsened, compared to 22 per cent who said their impression of the Liberal leader had improved.
Jack Layton and the NDP are the only contenders that appear to have any positive momentum going, Mr. Bricker said, noting that 29 per cent of those surveyed said their impression had improved in the last week, compared to only 17 per cent who said it had worsened. Green Leader Elizabeth May also enjoyed positive reviews, even though it is still a stretch to think the part can win a seat in the Commons.
"The Conservatives appear to have miscalculated the degree of raw political emotion unfolding across the land," Mr. Bricker said.
He cited Ontario, a province that is key to Harper's hopes of strengthening his mandate, as a problem for the Conservatives. The party has lost eight points in the last week, dropping to 32 per cent from 40, at the same time as the Liberals surged 14 points to 40 per cent.
Mr. Bricker blamed the Conservative drop on economic worries. The on-line survey said one in four people said they feared losing their jobs, a number not witnessed since the last recession in the early 1990s. It also said 76 per cent, the highest proportion in the country, say they expect a recession.
In the Greater Toronto Area, the Liberals hold a commanding lead over the Tories at 46 per cent to 25 per cent, with the NDP close behind at 20 per cent. Outside the Greater Toronto area, the Conservatives and Tories are neck in neck.
Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has dipped two points to 38 per cent, but still holds a commanding lead over the Liberals at 23 per cent and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. The Bloc has the lead in and outside Greater Montreal. The Liberals have the lead over the Conservatives in Greater Montreal, while the Tories are running well ahead of the Grits in non-urban Quebec.
British Columbia is the other big battleground province, and the Conservatives at 39 per cent continued to enjoy a solid lead over the NDP at 25 per cent and Liberals, who were up three points to 24 per cent.
Greater Vancouver is a three-way fight, with the Tories at 35 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.
Across the prairies, the Conservatives are well ahead of their rivals, whereas in Atlantic Canada the Tories and Liberals are in a dead heat at 34 per cent. The NDP is not far off at 26 per cent, up five points from the last survey. The Green party is down six points to three per cent.
The telephone survey on party popularity is considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher in the regions, ranging from 4.4 points in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec to 9.8 in Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The spread for the cities is 6.1 points in Greater Montreal and 6.7 points in Greater Toronto.
The on-line survey is based on 30,022 competed forms, and is considered accurate within 0.5 points, 19 times out of 20.
Tory minority seems likely, latest poll shows
Norma Greenaway, Canwest News Service Published: Friday, October 10, 2008
OTTAWA -- The federal election campaign is coming down to a possible photo finish as the ruling Conservative party's lead over the Liberals is narrowing in the face of voter volatility spurred by the U.S.-born global financial crisis, according to the results of a sweeping new Ipsos-Reid poll.
The poll, conducted exclusively for Canwest News Service and Global National, said Conservative support was at 34 per cent, compared to 29 per cent for the Liberals, 18 per cent for the New Democratic Party, nine per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and eight per cent for the Greens.
Darrell Bricker, president of Ipsos Reid, said the political landscape is so unsettled going into the final weekend of the campaign that the only thing he will confidently predict is that Prime Minister Stephen Harper will not win a majority of the 308 seats in the Commons in Tuesday's election.
Instead, Mr. Bricker predicts a minority Conservative government, but not, he says, with total confidence, given the unpredictable reaction among voters to the "economic tsunami."
Mr. Bricker also said that based on what happened in the last two elections -- when significant numbers of NDP supporters voted Liberal to block Harper -- he does not rule out significant shifts before Canadians vote. He suggested the NDP vote might hold firmer this time, however, because there is not the fear of a Harper majority hanging over their decision.
The poll involved telephone interviews Tuesday through Thursday with 2,000 adults, double the size of the firm's normal surveys for Canwest and Global, as well as a major on-line surveys designed to collect voter attitudes on everything from whether the country is headed into recession to their take on the political parties' plans for dealing with the global economic crisis.
Mr. Bricker said the findings point to a sense of "impending doom" among Canadians, and that Mr. Harper has not persuaded or reassured a significant portion of the population that he has a plan to deal with the impact of the global economic crisis.
The poll, taken before the government announced a $25-billion plan designed to ease credit in the banking system, said only 30 per cent of those surveyed said they thought the Tories have a plan. Stephane Dion's Liberals did not fare much better, with only 28 per cent saying they think the Grits have a plan. The poll also said the two leaders' favourable numbers were buried by their negative ratings.
Forty-four per cent of those surveyed also said their impression of Mr. Harper had worsened over the last couple of days, compared with 12 per cent who said their impression improved. For Mr. Dion, 30 per cent said their impression had worsened, compared to 22 per cent who said their impression of the Liberal leader had improved.
Jack Layton and the NDP are the only contenders that appear to have any positive momentum going, Mr. Bricker said, noting that 29 per cent of those surveyed said their impression had improved in the last week, compared to only 17 per cent who said it had worsened. Green Leader Elizabeth May also enjoyed positive reviews, even though it is still a stretch to think the part can win a seat in the Commons.
"The Conservatives appear to have miscalculated the degree of raw political emotion unfolding across the land," Mr. Bricker said.
He cited Ontario, a province that is key to Harper's hopes of strengthening his mandate, as a problem for the Conservatives. The party has lost eight points in the last week, dropping to 32 per cent from 40, at the same time as the Liberals surged 14 points to 40 per cent.
Mr. Bricker blamed the Conservative drop on economic worries. The on-line survey said one in four people said they feared losing their jobs, a number not witnessed since the last recession in the early 1990s. It also said 76 per cent, the highest proportion in the country, say they expect a recession.
In the Greater Toronto Area, the Liberals hold a commanding lead over the Tories at 46 per cent to 25 per cent, with the NDP close behind at 20 per cent. Outside the Greater Toronto area, the Conservatives and Tories are neck in neck.
Within Quebec, the Bloc Quebecois has dipped two points to 38 per cent, but still holds a commanding lead over the Liberals at 23 per cent and the Conservatives at 22 per cent. The Bloc has the lead in and outside Greater Montreal. The Liberals have the lead over the Conservatives in Greater Montreal, while the Tories are running well ahead of the Grits in non-urban Quebec.
British Columbia is the other big battleground province, and the Conservatives at 39 per cent continued to enjoy a solid lead over the NDP at 25 per cent and Liberals, who were up three points to 24 per cent.
Greater Vancouver is a three-way fight, with the Tories at 35 per cent, the Liberals at 29 per cent and the NDP at 26 per cent.
Across the prairies, the Conservatives are well ahead of their rivals, whereas in Atlantic Canada the Tories and Liberals are in a dead heat at 34 per cent. The NDP is not far off at 26 per cent, up five points from the last survey. The Green party is down six points to three per cent.
The telephone survey on party popularity is considered accurate within 2.2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin of error is higher in the regions, ranging from 4.4 points in British Columbia, Ontario and Quebec to 9.8 in Atlantic Canada, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The spread for the cities is 6.1 points in Greater Montreal and 6.7 points in Greater Toronto.
The on-line survey is based on 30,022 competed forms, and is considered accurate within 0.5 points, 19 times out of 20.